Population Trends and Policies in Vietnam

Vietnam in recent years has succeeded in lowering both its death and birth rates. The rate of natural increase has fallen somewhat, but was on the order of 2.4 or 2.5 percent per annum in 1980, sufficient if continued to double the population in about 28 years. This rate of increase occasions great concern in official planning circles, given Vietnam's difficulties in feeding its population and the imbalance in population distribution, with particularly severe pressure in the Red River Delta in the North (see Figure 1). The government's response has been to set ambitious targets with regard to both population growth and distribution: the aim is to lower the rate of population growth to 1.7 percent per annum by 1985, to move 10 million people from the North to the South by the year 2000, and to hold constant the size of cities in the South. Large-scale programs to attain these goals have been set in motion. After reviewing the historical problems of population pressure on the land, principally in the North, and touching briefly on overall economic conditions, this paper reports on available demographic data for North and South Vietnam and describes government policies and programs to deal with the problem. Although Vietnam was unified in 1975, in considering rates of population growth and availability of demographic data it is necessary to maintain the distinction between North and South, because the situation differs so sharply between these two regions. The information was derived largely from published Vietnamese sources, unpublished data from the 1979 census, the vital registration system and the family planning program, discussions with government officials, and field visits undertaken by the author in 1981 as a member of a Basic Needs Assessment Mission of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities.