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A proximate determinants approach is taken to the analysis of fertility in Britain during the period around 1960 to 1980. It is concluded that the main determinant of fertility change in the mid-1960s to mid-1970s was the diffusion of the oral contraceptive pill. Evidence is presented that pill use was determined largely by contraceptive considerations, rather than by other remote socio-economic factors. In particular, changes in pill use due to ‘pill scares’ are shown to be clearly and directly related to subsequent substantial short-term fertility changes in 1971 and around 1978. A series that reflects annual changes in pill use is included in the conventional ‘new home economics’ econometric model, and it is shown to fit observed fertility trends better than economic series. It is concluded that demographic considerations, such as contraceptive use, are necessary for a proper understanding of post-war fertility trends, and that approaches which ignore them may be potentially misleading.
Michael Murphy (Thu,) studied this question.