Recidivism among Released Federal Prisoners

The salient factor score is an actuarial device used by the United States Parole Commission as an aid in assessing a federal prisoner's likelihood of recidivism after release. This device was originally constructed and validated on random samples of released federal prisoners using a two-year follow-up period of each case with “recidivism” defined as any new commitment of sixty days or more or return to prison as a parole violator. In this research note, a further examination of the salient factor score is described using a five-year follow-up period for each case. To focus upon the predictive power of the salient factor score with regard to particularly serious new criminal conduct, “recidivism” is defined as the presence of a new sentence of imprisonment exceeding one year for an offense committed during the follow-up period. It is found that the salient factor score retains predictive power when applied to this follow-up period and outcome measure.