Chlorophyll-total phosphorus relationships in Lake Burragorang, New South Wales, and some other Southern Hemisphere lakes

Linear regression of chlorophyll concentration on total phosphorus concentration for phosphorus- limited Lake Burragorang, N.S.W., yields regression coefficients within the range reported for individual lakes in the Northern Hemisphere. Some variation in slope of published regressions is attributable to the choice of different regression subvariables (e.g. annual mean or annual maximum). The extent of this variation is quantified. Data from Lake Burragorang and other sites indicate that chlorophyll-phosphorus relationships in the Southern Hemisphere are concordant with those in the north if turbid waters are excluded from consideration. This is obviously significant in Australia, with so many turbid waters. The notion of 'growing season', as applied to Northern Hemisphere studies, is inappropriate for the warm temperate conditions of Lake Burragorang, and it was necessary instead to use the annual maximum chlorophyll concentration. Prediction of annual maximum chlorophyll concentration is of particular significance to water-quality management. Despite highly significant regressions, 95% confidence intervals and 95% prediction limits are wide, so that prediction of chlorophyll concentration from single values of total phosphorus, using double-In regressions, gives a wide arithmetic range. Use of annual mean total phosphorus concentration as the predictor variable limits the forecasting ability of the Lake Burragorang regressions but facilitates future coupling with a phosphorus loading model. This would assist in the assessment of projected management plans and the formulation of protective loading criteria.