Reading and spelling skills in the first school years predicted from phonemic awareness skills in kindergarten

A series of metalinguistic tasks, including segmentation and synthesis of words, were given to 143 children in kindergarten. The children were followed up in school where reading and writing achievement was assessed with several tests and ratings. A causal model was postulated concering the relationships between general abilities, metalinguistic competence, and reading and spelling skills. The quantitative implications of the model were worked out by path analysis, which revealed an orderly and interpretable picture. The most invariant and important determinant of basic reading and spelling skills was the analysis of simple words. Failure and success in school could be predicted with high accuracy on the basis of preschool data. Over 70% of the children were classified correctly in the extreme quartiles as to their future school achievement. The methodological advantage of applying path analysis instead of conventional multiple regression analysis on the present problem was discussed.