Will Natural Disasters Accelerate Neighborhood Decline? A Discrete-Time Hazard Analysis of Residential Property Vacancy and Abandonment before and after Hurricane Andrew in Miami-Dade County (1991–2000)

This study examines the impact of an abrupt catastrophic natural disaster on residential property vacancy and abandonment. Using the discrete-time hazard model with parcel-level land-use data in Miami-Dade County, Florida, from two years prior to and eight years after Hurricane Andrew (1991–2000), the analysis shows that Hurricane Andrew triggered widespread property vacancy and abandonment in its impact area, especially in neighborhoods already in decline. Occurrence of vacancy and abandonment is determined by damage intensity and the preevent neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics. The analysis also shows that vacant and abandoned properties exert a negative spillover effect that can induce a succession of vacancy and abandonment over time. This paper concludes with a discussion about planning implications regarding neighborhood transition and disaster recovery.