Effects of Institutions and Policies on Rural Population Growth with Application to China

The current emphasis in China on strictly limiting the number of births a family may have creates tensions between rural people and the government which may threaten the long-term viability of the population policy. The author presents this article to show that families fertility decisions are significantly influenced by institutions and policies affecting their lives and that the appropriate mix of policies and institutions can lead to rapid fertility declines. She also presents a set of institutions and policies capable of achieving and maintaining low levels of fertility in China while permitting families to have the number of children they desire. This approach would overcome an important defect of Chinas present policies which rely on the allocation of birth quotas. More precisely the paper presents a framework for understanding the factors which influence family fertility decisions and families ability to have the number of children that they desire compares fertility changes over the past four decades in China and in several other developing countries which have achieved similar rapid declines with a mixture of policies and institutions making it possible for families to have the number of children they desired summarizes evidence on major factors influencing family fertility decisions in a developing country discusses de facto pronatalist policies in China and their probable influence on rural fertility and suggests an effective alternative to Chinas current mix of such pronatalist policies and numerical controls on births. The author also provides evidence in support of the conclusion that the size of Chinas population will have little effect on per capita food supplies or real per capita incomes.