The Influence of Local Feedbacks and Northward Heat Transport on the Equilibrium Arctic Climate Response to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

Abstract This study uses coupled climate model experiments to identify the influence of atmospheric physics Community Atmosphere Model, versions 4 and 5 (CAM4; CAM5) and ocean model complexity (slab ocean, full-depth ocean) on the equilibrium Arctic climate response to an instantaneous CO2 doubling. In slab ocean model (SOM) experiments using CAM4 and CAM5, local radiative feedbacks, not atmospheric heat flux convergence, are the dominant control on the Arctic surface response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. Equilibrium Arctic surface air temperature warming and amplification are greater in the CAM5 SOM experiment than in the equivalent CAM4 SOM experiment. Larger 2 × CO2 radiative forcing, more positive Arctic surface albedo feedbacks, and less negative Arctic shortwave cloud feedbacks all contribute to greater Arctic surface warming and sea ice loss in CAM5 as compared to CAM4. When CAM4 is coupled to an active full-depth ocean model, Arctic Ocean horizontal heat flux convergence increases in response to the instantaneous CO2 doubling. Though this increased ocean northward heat transport slightly enhances Arctic sea ice extent loss, the representation of atmospheric processes (CAM4 versus CAM5) has a larger influence on the equilibrium Arctic surface climate response than the degree of ocean coupling (slab ocean versus full-depth ocean). These findings underscore that local feedbacks can be more important than northward heat transport for explaining the equilibrium Arctic surface climate response and response differences in coupled climate models. That said, the processes explaining the equilibrium climate response differences here may be different than the processes explaining intermodel spread in transient climate projections.