Threatening times, "strong" presidential popular vote winners, and the victory margin, 1824–1964.

Based on theory linking heightened authoritarianism to threat, 2 studies tested the hypothesis that the strength of presidential popular vote winners and the degree of societal threat are interactively related to the popular vote victory margin. In Study 1, strength was a composite of power motive, forcefulness, strength, and activeness, threat was gauged by an election year threat level index based on historians' opinions, and victory margin was a composite of 3 popular vote criteria. The hypothesis was supported, but the interaction could be accounted for by an interaction previously found between strength and A. M. Schlesinger, Jr.'s (1986) history cycles. In Study 2, a strength-conservatism composite replaced the initial strength variable. The hypothesis was supported. The interaction was independent of the Schlesinger interaction, and the two accounted for 47% of the variance in victory margins in 33 elections from 1824 to 1964.