Factors in predicting blood pressure change.

A total of 1166 male participants (ages 23--80 years) of the Normative Aging Study who had baseline blood pressure less than 140/90 mm Hg were followed prospectively for 10 years. Blood pressures were taken at 5- and 10-year follow-up examinations. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that baseline levels of systolic pressure, hematocrit, subscapular skinfold thickness and age were significant predictors of systolic pressure change during the follow-up period. Baseline levels of diastolic pressure, hematocrit, and body mass index were significant predictors of diastolic pressure change. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that only baseline blood pressure and hematocrit were significant predictors of subsequent blood pressure elevation to more than 159 mm Hg systolic or 94 mm Hg diastolic. Although the mechanisms by which hematocrit and body build affect blood pressure are unknown, these results suggest that identifying hypertension-prone subjects and delaying or preventing hypertension may be possible.