Outcome Predictors in Acute Schizophrenia

In a prospective 2-year follow-up of 37 young acute schizophrenics, we examined the predictive significance and relative contribution of historical, genealogical, course, and clinical dimensions. Patients were evaluated multidimensionally at index admission and after 21 to 33 months, at which time 19 cooperated in follow-up involving clinical, functional, psychometric, and objective outcome measures. Multiple regression analysis found that combinations of 3 to 4 index variables significantly predicted 13 of 14 outcome measures, yielding multiple R values between .63 and .93 (X = .78). In total, a set of eight parameters contributed in explaining the outcome variance. The strongest overall predictor of favorable outcome was baseline negative syndrome. Other significant predictors were good premorbid school functioning, favorable prior disposition, sudden onset of illness, nonparanoid subdiagnosis, family history of alcoholism, psychomotor retardation, and depression. Accordingly, a patient's premorbid adjustment, course of illness, and presenting clinical profile provided nonoverlapping sources of outcome prediction. Of these three dimensions, it was proposed that the prognostic significance of the clinical profile may be phase specific, carrying different implications when assessed in the acute vs. chronic stage of illness.