Kingpins or Mules: An Analysis of Drug Offenders Incarcerated in Federal and State Prisons

Research Summary: Drug policy reformers and defenders contest the extent to which low‐level drug offenders are being sent to prison and for how long. Using data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 (BJS, 2000), we assess the seriousness of incarcerated drug offenders along dimensions of dangerousness, culpability, and harm—specifically, functional role and drug group participation, type and amount of drugs, firearms involvement, and criminal conviction and arrest history. We find that only about 1.6% of federal and 5.7% of state inmates can be described as “unambiguously low‐level.” Alternatively, not many are “kingpins.” Rather, most fall into a middle spectrum representing different degrees of seriousness that depend on what factors are emphasized. Policy Implications: Our findings dampen hopes of dramatically reducing prison populations by getting out of prison those who are unambiguously low‐level drug offenders. They simply do not represent the majority of incarcerated drug offenders. In particular, most played some role in distribution, so eliminating prison terms for users (decriminalization) would not have affected many now in prison. Indeed, if decriminalization increased demand, it could plausibly increase prison populations by increasing the number of suppliers still subject to imprisonment. On the other hand, “drug courier exceptions” to sentencing laws that apply to minor role offenders possessing large quantities could have a greater prison reduction impact.