Ocean Warming and Late-Twentieth-Century Sahel Drought and Recovery

Abstract The influences of decadal Indian and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies on late-twentieth-century Sahel precipitation variability are investigated. The results of this regional modeling study show that the primary causes of the 1980s Sahel drought are divergence and anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which are associated with Indian Ocean warming. The easterly branch of this circulation drives moisture away from the Sahel. By competing for the available moisture, concurrent tropical Atlantic Ocean warming enhanced the areal coverage of the drought. The modeled partial recovery of the precipitation in the 1990s simulations is mainly related to the warming of the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean and an associated cyclonic circulation that supplies the Sahel with moisture. Because of the changes in the scale and distribution of the forcing, the divergence associated with the continued Indian Ocean warming during the 1990s was located over the tropical Atlantic, contributing to the recovery over the Sahel. In general, the influence of SSTs on Sahel precipitation is related to their modulation of the easterly flow and the associated moisture transport. Precipitation anomalies are further enhanced by the circulation patterns associated with local convergence anomalies. These convergence anomalies and circulation patterns are sensitive to the scale and distribution of the SST anomalies and the moisture.