Assessing the Potential Impact of the HIV-1 Epidemic on Orphanhood and the Demographic Structure of Populations in sub-Saharan Africa

Much of the debate on the demographic consequences of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has so far centred around the plausibility of population declines in areas where unprecendently high rates of population growth have recently been in evidence. In this article, the authors use a mathematical model, which combines epidemiological and demographic processes, to illustrate how, under a broad range of impacts on population growth, major changes in demographic features, such as the extent of orphanhood within populations, are likely to occur. At the same time, HIV epidemics are liable to cause significant shifts in the age and sex composition of affected populations, which may have important implications for the ways in which they are best able to cope with the increases in orphanhood, as well as those in infant, early childhood and adult mortality.