Computer-aided prognosis. II. Development of a prognostic algorithm

Any act of scientific reasoning requires the establishment of a pattern of strategy. To be applied consistently and reproducibly, the strategy must follow a specific logical sequence; to be effective and valid, the logic must be suitably adapted to the problem under consideration. The wordalgorithmhas been used, particularly by people who work with computers, as the name for the logical sequence of a pattern of strategy. Our purpose in the work reported here was to develop an algorithm for using a digital computer as an aid in clinical prognostication. The traditional act of prognosis is a prediction in which the clinician, after reviewing experience with previous patients, prophesizes the future of a new patient. In performing prognosis, the clinician contemplates the many features that characterized the initial state of the previous patients; he recalls what happened to the patients later; he matches the initial states and the outcomes;