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Long-range sea surface temperature forecasts from two different coupled ocean-atmosphere models of the tropical Pacific are used in conjunction with statistical models relating winter Northern Hemisphere 700-mb height and tropical SST to forecast the former field at a lead time of two seasons in advance. The forecasts show considerable skill over large areas, with a regional distribution of predictive performance that is consistent with the observed contemporaneous relation between the two fields. Comparable skills for lead time of a year or more in advance seem likely.
Graham et al. (Wed,) studied this question.