The Cyclicality of New Product Introductions*

This study analyzes empirically the cyclical nature of the timing of new product introductions in U.S. manufacturing. New product introductions vary more in nonseasonal frequencies than in seasonal frequencies. However, the seasons alone account for only a small part of their total variability with demand factors being much more important. Demand fluctuations account for 35%80% and 17%43%, respectively, of the seasonal and cyclical variability of new product introductions in various industries. Finally, new product introductions respond more to fluctuations in aggregate demand than in market demand and in business cycles than in seasonal cycles.