Modelling of crop growth conditions and crop yield in Poland using AVHRR-based indices

The application of satellite-derived indices for assessment of crop growth conditions in semi-arid countries is well known. In this paper the authors describe the application of these indices outside semi-arid areas, in Poland, a country with a sufficient water supply. Two indices, Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI), were computed for the whole country for each week for a period of 14 years. These indices were correlated with cereal yield anomalies for each of 49 regions of Poland. Two critical periods in crop development were found: early spring (14-16 weeks of the year) and early summer (22-25 weeks) when the state of crop development determines the magnitude of yield. The indices computed for these two periods were used in a yield prediction model. The results were compared with data provided by the Central Statistical Office. The average error of cereal yield estimates for 49 regions was lower than 4%.