Natural History of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections in Hemophiliacs: Effects of T-Cell Subsets, Platelet Counts, and Age

Serial T-cell subsets and platelet counts were determined in a cohort of 84 hemophiliacs in whom time of seroconversion for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody could be ascertained. An abrupt decrease in the number of T-helper (T4) cells was seen in 9 patients 12 to 24 months before the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was diagnosed (p = 0.0007 compared with those who did not develop AIDS). Thrombocytopenia also was associated with an increased risk for AIDS (p = 0.02), as was older age at the time of seroconversion (p = 0.03). Ten patients developed AIDS at 24 to 95 months after seroconversion, for a cumulative incidence (+/- SE) of 18.0% +/- 7.1% at 6 years. Hemophiliacs who had T4 cell counts of less than 200 cells/microL had a 50% +/- 16% cumulative incidence of AIDS within 2 years, indicating that decreasing or very low T4 cell counts have predictive value for the development of AIDS. Furthermore, the data suggest that thrombocytopenia and older age may be markers for a cofactor that increases the risk for AIDS in hemophiliacs.