The Wilkins Lecture 2000: Medical futures

This paper examines forecasts made by writers, medical and non-medical alike, as to the nature of medicine in a future society. In particular, starting from Plato and Sir Thomas More, it explores what place (if any) has been envisaged for medicine in a future Utopian society. By way of an explanatory device, predictions concerning medicine are compared and contrasted to expectations as to the role of the sciences, natural and social. Investigation of the corpus of social prognostications in fact reveals a dearth of glorious expectations as to the future of medicine as such, although certain writings have held out great hopes for biologistic disciplines, such as eugenics. It is often in ‘golden age’ fantasies about the early history of mankind that the most glowing descriptions of complete health are painted. Similarly, perfect health is something often viewed not in social but in individualistic terms. Explanations are offered of these perhaps slightly surprising facts.