Incidence, etiology and mortality of cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study

Objective. Knowledge on the prognosis among patients with cirrhosis is mainly based on clinical trials with selected patient groups as well as population-based register studies with suboptimal diagnostic reliability. The aim of the study was to describe incidence, etiology, and mortality of well-validated cirrhotic cases in a population-based cohort at Funen (population 470,000) between 1996 and 2006. Materials and methods. A population-based cohort study with case identification from discharge diagnosis followed by manual validation of patient records with inclusion of cases that fulfilled predefined diagnostic criteria. Results. 4010 possible cases were identified. 1369 patients were included, 67% males, mean age 56.4 years, 75% had cirrhotic complications at entry. Mean follow-up was 3.6 years with a total of 4976 years of follow-up. The incidence was 33/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval CI 28–40). Stratified for age and sex, the incidence was twice as high for men compared with women in all age groups. The five-year mortality was 62% (95% CI 59–65). A multivariate analysis showed a high mortality associated with male gender (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.08–1.42), ages above 70 years (HR 2.01 95% CI 1.65–2.47) compared with ages 50–59 years, complications present at diagnosis (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09–1.50) and etiology of alcoholic disease or cryptogenic cirrhosis (HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.22–4.67 and 2.26, 95% CI 1.13–4.53). Conclusions. Incidence of cirrhosis is higher among men than among women. High age, male gender, alcoholic cirrhosis, cryptogenic cirrhosis, and complications at the time of diagnosis increased mortality.