A search for accelerations in records of European mean sea level

Abstract Long records from European tide gauges have been inspected for evidence of modifications in the rate of change, or ‘accelerations’, of mean sea level (MSL). In general, no evidence was found for MSL accelerations significantly different from zero over the period 1870 to the present, although non‐zero accelerations were observed at individual stations. Changes in surface air pressure may have been responsible for an overall slightly negative acceleration observed in northern Europe. In order to extend the study to time‐scales longer than a century, data from the oldest European MSL records at Brest, Sheerness, Amsterdam and Stockholm starting in 1807, 1834, 1700 and 1774, respectively, were also investigated with the result that a positive acceleration of order 0·4 (mm year −1 ) per century appears to be typical of European Atlantic coast and Baltic MSL over the last few centuries. Although of interest as an indicator of past climate change, this small low‐frequency MSL acceleration is an order of magnitude less than that anticipated over the next few decades as a result of greenhouse warming. A conceptual study of possible future Newlyn (UK) tide gauge data has shown that the MSL acceleration anticipated from the global warming should be apparent in the records by the early part of the next century.