Mortality probability models for patients in the intensive care unit for 48 or 72 hours

OBJECTIVE: To develop models in the Mortality Probability Model (MPM II) system to estimate the probability of hospital mortality at 48 and 72 hrs in the intensive care unit (ICU), and to test whether the 24-hr Mortality Probability Model (MPM24), developed for use at 24 hrs in the ICU, can be used on a daily basis beyond 24 hrs. DESIGN: A prospective, multicenter study to develop and validate models, using a cohort of consecutive admissions. SETTING: Six adult medical and surgical ICUs in Massachusetts and New York adjusted to reflect 137 ICUs in 12 countries. PATIENTS: Consecutive admissions (n = 6,290) to the Massachusetts/New York ICUs were studied. Of these patients, 3,023 and 2,233 patients remained in the ICU and had complete data at 48 and 72 hrs, respectively. Patients < 18 yrs of age, burn patients, coronary care patients, and cardiac surgical patients were excluded. OUTCOME MEASURE: Vital status at the time of hospital discharge. RESULTS: The models consist of five variables measured at the time of ICU admission and eight variables ascertained at 24-hr intervals. The 24-hr model demonstrated poor calibration and discrimination at 48 and 72 hrs. The newly developed 48- and 72-hr models--MPM48 and MPM72--contain the same 13 variables and coefficients as the MPM24. The models differ only in their constant terms, which increase in a manner that reflects the increasing probability of mortality with increasing length of stay in the ICU. These constant terms were adjusted by a factor determined from the relationship between the data from the six Massachusetts and New York ICUs and a more extensive data set, from which the ICU admission Mortality Probability Model (MPM0) and MPM24 were developed. This latter data set was assembled from ICUs in 12 countries. The MPM48 and MPM72 calibrated and discriminated well, based on goodness-of-fit tests and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. CONCLUSIONS: Models developed for use among ICU patients at one time period are not transferable without modification to other time periods. The MPM48 and MPM72 calibrated well to their respective time periods, and they are intended for use at specific points in time. The increasing constant terms and associated increase in the probability of hospital mortality exemplify a common clinical adage that if a patient's clinical profile stays the same, he or she is actually getting worse.