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A statistical scale to assess the probability of violence in released mental patients was developed and cross-validated. A calibration sample of 251 adult males admitted as inpatients to a community mental health center and considered potentially violent was obtained. Data collected at admission (including demographics, family background, criminal justice and mental health system contacts, past violent behavior, and current situational measures) were used to predict subsequent violent arrests or readmissions during a 1-year follow-up period with multiple regression. A statistical equation of 5 variables was derived and applied to a cross-validation sample of 265 male patients
Klassen et al. (Thu,) studied this question.