Effect of flux adjustments on temperature variability in climate models

It has been suggested that “flux adjustments” in climate models suppress simulated temperature variability. If true, this might invalidate the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases since 1860 are anthropogenic, since this conclusion is based in part on estimates of natural temperature variability derived from flux‐adjusted models. We assess variability of surface air temperatures in 17 simulations of internal temperature variability submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By comparing variability in flux‐adjusted vs. non‐flux adjusted simulations, we find no evidence that flux adjustments suppress temperature variability in climate models; other, largely unknown, factors are much more important in determining simulated temperature variability. Therefore the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases are anthropogenic cannot be questioned on the grounds that it is based in part on results of flux‐adjusted models. Also, reducing or eliminating flux adjustments would probably do little to improve simulations of temperature variability.