Diverting Soviet rivers: some possible repercussions for the Arctic Ocean

Abstract Plans exist in the USSR to divert southward part of the flow of some northern Russian and Siberian rivers, notably the Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob' and Yenisey, to alleviate water shortages in Central Asia, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine, and counter falling water levels in the Aral and Caspian Seas. Possible effects of diverting small and large amounts of river water away from the Arctic are discussed in the light of recent observations and modelling studies of Arctic basin hydrology and sea ice distribution. Current evidence suggests that small diversions planned to operate before the end of this century will have little effect on ocean circulation or sea ice distribution. Larger-scale diversions planned for the future might affect sea ice formation over the shelf regions of the Kara and Barents Seas, but are unlikely to have a major effect on circulation or sea ice distribution over the Arctic Ocean as a whole.