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Abstract To link prominent nonlinearities in the dynamics of 500-hPa geopotential heights to non-Gaussian features in their probability density, a nonlinear stochastic model of atmospheric planetary wave behavior is developed. An analysis of geopotential heights generated by extended integrations of a GCM suggests that a stochastic model and its associated Fokker–Planck equation call for a nonlinear drift and multiplicative noise. All calculations are carried out in the reduced phase space spanned by the leading EOFs. It is demonstrated that this nonlinear stochastic model of planetary wave behavior captures the non-Gaussian features in the probability density function of atmospheric states to a remarkable degree. Moreover, it not only predicts global temporal characteristics, but also the nonlinear, state-dependent divergence of state trajectories. In the context of this empirical modeling, it is discussed on which time scale a stochastic model is expected to approximate the behavior of a continuous deterministic process. The reduced model is then used to determine the importance of the nonlinearities in the drift and the role of the multiplicative noise. While the nonlinearities in the drift are crucial for a good representation of planetary wave behavior, multiplicative (i.e., state dependent) noise is not absolutely essential. It is found that a major contributor to the stochastic component is the Branstator–Kushnir oscillation, which acts as a fluctuating force for physical processes with even longer time scales, like those that project on the Arctic Oscillation pattern. In this model, the oscillation is represented by strongly correlated noise.
Judith Berner (2005) studied this question.