Long-term prediction of academic achievement of American, Chinese, and Japanese adolescents.

Representative samples of 729 American, Chinese, and Japanese 1st graders were given achievement and cognitive tests. Mothers were interviewed. Ten years later, 475 of the students participated in a follow-up study in which they were interviewed and given achievement tests. Results revealed high stability of achievement relationships within all 3 societies. Measures of early cognitive abilities were consistently related to the families' socioeconomic status and exerted their influence on later achievement either through 1st-grade achievement scores or through evaluations made by their mothers. The percentage of variance in achievement scores accounted for by the path models was between 49% and 59% at 1st grade and between 38% and 51% at 11th grade. Despite statistical differences in mean scores on the achievement tests, the associations between early predictors and later achievement were similar in the 3 cultural groups, indicating that differences in mean scores may not be accompanied by differences in interrelationships.