Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal zone management

Abstract Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century by a mechanism known as the greenhouse effect. Such a warming could cause sea level to rise two to five feet by expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers, and perhaps eventually causing polar glaciers to melt and slide into the oceans. A rise in sea level of even three feet could cause substantial erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers. Fortunately, many of the adverse consequences can be avoided by taking timely measures in anticipation of sea level rise. Nevertheless, many coastal zone managers are reluctant to take these measures until the prospect of sea level rise becomes more certain. This article examines the implications of future sea level rise and identifies anticipatory measures that may be appropriate today in spite of current uncertainties.