Short-term Economic and Health Benefits of Smoking Cessation

BACKGROUND: Most analyses of the economic benefits of smoking cessation consider long-term effects, which are often not of interest to public and private policy makers. These analyses fail to account for the time course of the short-run cost savings from the rapid decline in risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimate the time course of the fall in risk of AMI and stroke after smoking cessation and simulate the impact of a 1% absolute reduction in smoking prevalence on the number of and short-term direct medical costs associated with the prevented AMIs and strokes. In the first year, there would be 924+/-679 (mean+/-SD) fewer hospitalizations for AMI and 538+/-508 for stroke, resulting in an immediate savings of 44+/-26 million. A 7-year program that reduced smoking prevalence by 1% per year would result in a total of 63, 840+/-15, 521 fewer hospitalizations for AMI and 34, 261+/-9133 fewer for stroke, resulting in a total savings of 3. 20+/-0. 59 billion in costs, and would prevent approximately 13, 100 deaths resulting from AMI that occur before people reach the hospital. Creating a new nonsmoker reduces anticipated medical costs associated with AMI and stroke by 47 in the first year and by 853 during the next 7 years (discounting 2. 5% per year). CONCLUSIONS: Although primary prevention of smoking among teenagers is important, reducing adult smoking pays more immediate dividends, both in terms of health improvements and cost savings.