Commentary: Predicting and preventing premature mortality

Established risk factors for premature mortality may be fixed or modifiable. Prevention in clinical practice naturally concentrates on identifying and attempting to correct modifiable factors such as smoking, hypertension, and hyperlipidaemia. In this context, fixed predictors such as age, sex, and family history of disease may be useful in guiding decisions about whom and when to treat.1 Under the common (but rarely tested) assumption that the relative benefits of treatment are the same for different patient groups, greater absolute benefits may be expected for patients at higher underlying risk of disease. The balance of benefits and side effects may thus depend …