Selecting, evaluating, and updating prospects in direct mail marketing

Direct mail marketers are generally given a comprehensive mailing list from which they must select and contact prospects. Specifically, they must decide 1) whom to mail to, and 2) if the prospect does not respond to a first mailing, should they mail a second solicitation? A third? A fourth? This article builds models to help answer these questions in a rigorous manner. We model the expected response from a given prospect based on a set of descriptor variables. The model will help the direct marketer to prioritize prospects, set budgets, and allocate resources. We demonstrate the applicability of the model in the contexts of university alumni club renewals and a direct mail health insurance offer.