Ukraine and the Art of Limited War

Can't Always Get What You Want' -Rolling Stones, Let it Bleed, 1969 In a piece published in the June-July issue of Survival, I considered 'Ukraine and the Art of Crisis Management'. 1 My aim was to explore the relevance of the strategic concepts of the Cold War to the unfolding drama of Ukraine, and in particular the challenge of securing essential interests without triggering a wider war.I judged the crisis to have been badly managed by Russia, not particularly well by the West, and with great difficulty by Ukraine.The consequences of the failure of crisis management lay not so much in expanding the area of conflict but instead in a sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the West, and continuing and unsettling violence within Ukraine.The result was that, over subsequent months, the role of Russian forces within Ukraine became more direct and overt, as the more irregular separatist forces were unable to cope.The conflict became less of an externally sponsored insurgency in eastern Ukraine and more of a limited war between Ukraine and Russia.The costs were high.According to the United Nations, by 8 October 2014 the conflict had claimed 3,682 lives and wounded 8,871 in eastern Ukraine.Some 5 million people lived in the area affected by conflict.Some