Prediction for a planned relaparotomy in secondary peritonitis

Abstract Aims. To devise a scoring system for clinical variables related to positive findings at relaparotomy in secondary peritonitis. Methods. We have retrospectively studied 195 cases of patients after relaparotomy. According to the operation’s findings, the patients were divided into two groups: ‘relaparatomy unnecessary’ group A, ‘relaparotomy necessary’ group B. 6 factors (age, sex, leukocyte count, C reactive protein, time of symptoms to index operation, Mannheim Peritonitis Index) were evaluated in respect to their significance in decision making for relaparotomy. The predictive value for positive operation`s findings of these factors was evaluated by logistic multivariate regression analysis. According to this model a risk scoring system was created to support the decision whether to perform a relaparotomy. Results. Relaparotomy was unnecessary (Group A) for 154 (79,0%) patients, for 41 (21,0%) it was necessary (Group B). Comparing the groups A and B, we found a significant difference in patients’ mean age (54 v. 63 years, p=0,002), mean CRP level (133,2 v. 182,8 mg/L, p=0,025), mean time of symptoms to index operation (38,1 v. 67,1 hours, p=0,006) and mean MPI value (22,4 v. 29,4, p<0,0001). According to the above-mentioned predictors, a scoring system was devised: −0,17-(0,003×patient’s age years)+(0.153×time of symptoms to index operation hours)-(0,297×MPI)+(0,192×CRP mg/l). The score was 24,798±25,593 in group A and 36,572±32,543 in group B(p=0,028). Conclusions: Scoring system was devised to assist in creating treatment strategy after secondary peritonitis. If the score is ≥37, a planned relaparotomy should be performed. If the score is ≤24, other diagnostic and therapeutic tactics should be applied.