Enso-Snow-Monsoon Associations and Seasonal-Interannual Predictions

Relationships between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Eurasian winter snow cover (EWSC), and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are studied. The information provided may be useful for improving seasonal–interannual predictions of the coupled ocean–atmosphere–land system. Results show that more extensive EWSC occurs during El Niño winters rather than La Niña winters. A precursory signal of snow variability can be found in the Southern Oscillation Index. An inverse relationship between EWSC and ISMR, reported in previous studies, is generally confirmed by this study. However, an important finding is that the general snow–monsoon relationship is disrupted by El Niño events. Considering both ENSO's direct impact on ISMR and its role in the break-down of the EWSC–ISMR relationship, it may be reasonable to say that ENSO plays a more important role than EWSC in influencing the variability of the Indian monsoon.