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A method for partitioning the total fertility rate in the United States into 2 period components is developed. 1 component reflects fertility timing the other measures the average completed fertility of women currently in their childbearing years. Estimates of fertility expectations derived from an economic model are reported. The measures of fertility timing and the estimates of fertility expectations are used to analyze the timing component of the total fertility rate from 1920 to 1975. By comparing estimates of fertility expectations with published data on lifetime births expected the extent to which these very different processes generate measures of the same thing can be evaluated. The evidence suggests that virtually all of the baby bust has been reflected in a corresponding bust in expected completed fertility. Expected completed fertility did level off between 1972 and 1975 and probably has remained level since but the resulting gap between expected completed fertility and the total fertility rate is dwarfed by the 20-year fertility decline. The theoretical model suggested implies the following: 1) annual movements in period fertility rates will continue to be dominated by timing considerations; 2) these movements will be countercyclical as couples seek to compress their births into relatively low-cost periods when the economy is sluggish; 3) periods of rising (falling) wages and job opportunities for women will induce declining (increasing) fertility expectations; and 4) continued secular expansion of the economy and of womens wages (if it occurs) will induce continued secular declines in period fertility rates until a positive asymptote is reached following which period fertility rates will continue to fluctuate countercyclincally.
Butz et al. (Sat,) studied this question.