Prognosis for Survival After an Initial Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We studied prognosis for survival after an initial stroke in 662 patients who survived at least 30 days after onset while taking into account age, sex, the number of neurological deficits from the initial stroke, stroke type, and five selected medical conditions: hypertension, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrhythmia, diabetes mellitus, and history of transient ischemic attacks. METHODS: All patients were enrolled between July 1, 1987, and August 1, 1989, and were followed regularly at about 6-month intervals until death or the end of the study (mean of 24 months). RESULTS: At 6 months, 90.8% of the 30-day stroke survivors were still alive. At 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, the cumulative survival rates were 86.9%, 78.7%, 73.2%, and 72.0%, respectively. Older age and the number of neurological deficits at onset of initial stroke increased risk of death. Compared with patients of the same age, sex, number of neurological deficits, and comorbidities, increased risk of death is present among those with myocardial infarction, cardiac arrhythmia, and diabetes mellitus. Hazard ratios were 1.7 (P = .006), 1.5 (P = .023), and 1.4 (P = .059), respectively. Hypertension and transient ischemic attacks were not significantly associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study clarifies prognosis for survival after an initial stroke by taking into account other confounding variables that could also contribute to risk of death.