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This article shows that college performance and selectivity have significant effects on earnings. It suggests that work that does not include college performance overstates the effect of college selectivity for Whites and understates it for Blacks. While the size of the effect of college selectivity for Blacks is larger than for Whites, the large Black earnings gain is offset for students whose own Scholastic Aptitude Test scores are significantly below the median of the college they attend. This results from the lower probability of graduation for "mismatched" Blacks and the subsequently lower earnings for those who fail to complete college.
Loury et al. (Sat,) studied this question.