Validity and utility of alternative predictors of job performance.

Meta-analysis of the cumulative research on various predictors of job performance shows that for entry-level jobs there is no predictor with validity equal to that of ability, which has a mean validity of. 53. For selection on the basis of current job performance, the work sample test, with mean validity of. 54, is slightly better. For federal entry-level jobs, substitution of an alternative predictor would cost from 3. 12 billion (job tryout) to 15. 89 billion per year (age). Hiring on ability has a utility of 15. 61 billion per year, but affects minority groups adversely. Hiring on ability by quotas would decrease this utility by 5%. A third strategy—using a low cutoff score—would decrease utility by 83%. Using other predictors in conjunction with ability tests might improve validity and reduce adverse impact, but there is as yet no data base for studying this possibility.