Economic Conditions and the Congressional Vote: A Review of the Macrolevel Evidence

It is widely believed that variation in the national congressional vote is largely determined by the health of the national economy. However, scholars have yet to agree on a satisfactory microlevel explanation of the macrolevel relationship. The present study suggests the solution that there may not exist any macrolevel relationship to explain. With the proper specifications, per capita income growth is not significantly related to the congressional vote. This result varies sharply with the evidence at the presidential level.