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We examined the graft survival of 12,883 first unrelated kidney grafts from nonliving donors, transplanted between 1 January 1971 and 31 December 1987 within 52 renal transplantation centers participating in the Eurotransplant organization. The 5-year graft survival increased from 38.8% for the period 1971-1975 to 66.0% for the period 1981-1987 for patients treated with cyclosporine, whereas the half-life increased by only 2 years, from 9.7 years to 11.6 years over the same period, based on grafts functioning at 1 year posttransplantation. Results per HLA locus showed considerable improvements within mismatch groups over the entire period. Large differences between mismatch groups for the early years were observed, but within the cyclosporine era only HLA-B showed a statistically significant difference in half-lives (13.2 versus 9.0 years, for 0 and 2 mismatches respectively, P = 0.013). When other prognostic factors were taken into account, it was revealed by means of an exponential model that number of HLA-B mismatches, donor and recipient age and sex, and recipient diagnosis of diabetes had significant effects on the long-term outcome of the grafts. Depending on the combination of these parameters, estimates of half-life varied from 4.9 to 14.5 years. These results show that matching for HLA-B is still of benefit in the longer term and that other prognostic factors play an important role in predicting the late outcome of renal allografts.
Thorogood et al. (Wed,) studied this question.