Comparability of NSC mathematics scores and former SC mathematics scores: How consistent is the signal across time?

Abstract Pupils’ competence and preparedness are assumed to be reflected in their school-leaving scores which are used by employers and further education institutions as signals for selecting appropriate applicants. Schools need a consistent signal of their pupils’ potential success beyond school in order to prepare them appropriately. The introduction of the National Senior Certificate (NSC) in South Africa has led to the admission of students into universities who seem inadequately prepared for tertiary education, especially with regard to their mathematical preparedness. Using a standardised 1st year university test first written in 2006 and repeated in 2009 and 2010, we compare the signalling ability of the NSC school-leaving mathematics scores with the former Higher Grade (HG) in terms of mathematical preparedness. Our findings suggest that the NSC mathematics scores are inflated by around 20–25 percentage points compared to the former HG mathematics scores. However, once deflated, the NSC scores are very good predictors of mathematical preparedness. These results are consistent across the two NSC cohorts which should indicate to schools what the comparable level of mathematical preparedness is across HG and NSC mathematics and allow university admission offices to set more appropriate minimum requirements for university admission. Keywords: National Senior Certificatemathematical preparednesssignalling abilityuniversity admission Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the financial aid of SPARC funding of the University of the Witwatersrand. We would like to thank participants of the ASSAf STEM conference ‘Mind the gap’, 20-21 October 2010 in Cape Town, for insightful comments and suggestions as well as Professor Katherine Munro and Professor Harry Zarenda for their continuous support of the Economics 1 project at the University of the Witwatersrand. Furthermore, we would like to thank late Professor Anthony B. Lumby for his inspiration and support in the initial stages of this project. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the financial aid of SPARC funding of the University of the Witwatersrand. We would like to thank participants of the ASSAf STEM conference ‘Mind the gap’, 20-21 October 2010 in Cape Town, for insightful comments and suggestions as well as Professor Katherine Munro and Professor Harry Zarenda for their continuous support of the Economics 1 project at the University of the Witwatersrand. Furthermore, we would like to thank late Professor Anthony B. Lumby for his inspiration and support in the initial stages of this project.