The Political Success of Russia-Belarus Relations: Insulating Minsk from a Color Revolution

Abstract: This article explores how the Russia-Belarus relationship has countered external forces that have been shown to promote democratization. It seeks to answer the following questions: According to the democratization literature, what external factors make democratization more likely? How have Russia-Belarus ties countered these factors? And, how best can the United States and the European Union promote democratization in Belarus? Key words: authoritarianism, Belarus, democratization, European Union, external variables, Russia ********** These aren't revolutions--they're banditry under the guise of democracy ... this banditry is imposed and paid for from outside, is carried out to benefit individuals who don't care about their countries and peoples, and interests only those who have imperialist ambitions and are trying to conquer new markets. (1) --Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka Russia's relationship with Belarus is closer than that of any other ex-Soviet republic. In the mid-1990s, a process of reintegration was proposed, with a Russia-Belarus union state as its eventual goal, leading to full political, military, and economic integration. However, disputes over the structure of the union, as well as the uneasy relationship between Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Russian President Vladimir Putin, have stymied any substantive progress. Although quite successful on the military front, the Russia-Belarus union, the cornerstone of Russia-Belarus relations, has been seen by scholars as an overall failure. (2) This article argues, however, that the relationship between Minsk and Moscow, and the promises of an eventual union between the two states, has been a political success for both Lukashenka and Putin. Both presidents have used this process to protect Belarus from the efforts of the European Union (EU) and the United States to spread democracy in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. In effect, the relationship between the two countries is an antidemocratic alliance aimed at insulating Belarus from political reforms. Grounded in the democratization literature, this article explores how the Russia-Belarus relationship has countered external forces that have been shown to promote democratization. It seeks to answer the following questions: According to the democratization literature, what external factors make democratization more likely? How has the nascent Russia-Belarus union countered these factors? How best can the United States and the EU promote democratization in Belarus? In addition to answering these questions, this article makes a contribution to the democratization literature by illustrating how external forces can be instrumental in promoting or preserving authoritarianism, as well as creating an international environment where there is actually a disincentive to democratize. Moreover, this article will assert that the Kremlin leadership derives significant benefits from preventing democratization on its doorstep. This article will proceed as follows. First, it provides an overview of the democratization literature, paying special attention to the external factors that have been seen as to promote democracy. This section asserts that these external factors can be neutralized by countervailing external forces that can actually sustain and promote authoritarianism. Second, it provides an overview of the history of the proposed Russia-Belarus union. The three sections that follow examine how the Kremlin has insulated the Belarusian leaders from external pressure to democratize by undermining Western policies and by providing Belarus with an alternative to European integration. The conclusion of this paper focuses on the effects of an international environment that provides disincentives to democratize and the purposes that such an environment serves for the Kremlin leadership. Moreover, it evaluates the prospects for democratization in Belarus and explores strategies for Western states to bring about a color revolution in that country. …