Does the historical NIH equation accurately predict contemporary survival in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension?
Contemporary survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension is significantly better than predicted by the historical NIH registry equation, leading to the development of a new prognostic equation.
The aim of the present study was to determine contemporary survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and to investigate whether or not the National Institutes of Health (NIH) equation remains an accurate predictor of survival. In 576 patients with PAH referred during 1991-2007, observed survival was described using the Kaplan-Meier method. In patients with idiopathic, familial and anorexigen-associated PAH (n = 247), observed versus NIH equation predicted survival was compared. A new survival prediction equation was developed using exponential regression analysis. The observed 1-, 3- and 5-yr survival in the total cohort were 86, 69 and 61%, respectively. In patients with idiopathic, familial and anorexigen-associated PAH, the observed 1-, 3- and 5-yr survival (92, 75 and 66%, respectively) were significantly higher than the predicted survival (65, 43 and 32%, respectively). The new equation (P(t) = e(-A(x,y,z)t), where P(t) is probability of survival, t the time interval in years, A(x,y,z) = e((-1.270-0.0148x+0.0402y-0.361z)), x the mean pulmonary artery pressure, y the mean right atrial pressure and z the cardiac index) performed well when applied to published contemporary studies of survival in PAH. Contemporary survival in the PAH cohort was better than that predicted by the NIH registry equation. The NIH equation underestimated survival in idiopathic, familial and anorexigen-associated PAH. Once prospectively validated, the new equation may be used to determine prognosis.
Thenappan et al. (Wed,) studied this question.