November 25, 2010Open Access
View Full PaperSerum Soluble CD163 Predicts Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in the General Population
Key Result
Higher baseline serum sCD163 concentrations strongly predicted an increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes over 18 years (HR 5.2; 95% CI 3.6-7.6 for the top 5% vs the lowest tertile).
Study Design
Type
Cohort (n=8,849)
Multicenter
No
Structured PICO
Do increased concentrations of serum soluble CD163 predict the risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population?
P
Population
8,849 participants from the general population (Copenhagen City Heart Study)
I
Intervention
Higher baseline serum soluble CD163 (sCD163) concentrations (categorized by percentiles: 34%-66%, 67%-90%, 91%-95%, and 96%-100%)
C
Comparator
Lowest percentile category (0%-33%) of serum sCD163
O
Outcome
Incidence of type 2 diabeteshard clinical
Serum soluble CD163 is a strong, independent predictor of incident type 2 diabetes in the general population, offering potential utility for risk stratification in overweight individuals.
Main Result
Effect estimate: HR 5.2 (95% CI 3.6-7.6)
p-value: p=<0.001
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Activation of adipose tissue macrophages with concomitant low-grade inflammation is believed to play a central role in the development of type 2 diabetes. We tested whether a new macrophage-derived biomarker, soluble CD163 (sCD163), identifies at-risk individuals before overt disease has developed. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 8849 study participants from the general population, the Copenhagen City Heart Study, was followed for 18 years for incidence of type 2 diabetes. Risk of disease was calculated according to age- and sex-adjusted percentile categories of serum sCD163 concentrations: 0%-33%, 34%-66%, 67%-90%, 91%-95%, and 96%-100%. RESULTS: A total of 568 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The cumulative incidence increased with increasing baseline sCD163 (trend P 70 years of age, serum sCD163 concentrations in the top 5% group predicted an absolute 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes of 29% and 36% vs 7% and 8% in the lowest percentile group. Equivalent values in women were 19% and 24% vs 4% and 5%. CONCLUSIONS: Increased concentrations of sCD163 predict increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population and may be useful for identification of high-risk overweight individuals.