Probabilistic Forecasts of the Magnitude and Timing of Peak Electricity Demand

Adequate capacity planning requires accurate forecasts of the future magnitude and timing of peak electricity demand. Electricity demand is affected by the day of the week, seasonal variations, holiday periods, feast days, and the weather. A model that provides probabilistic forecasts of both magnitude and timing for lead times of one year is presented. This model is capable of capturing the main sources of variation in demand and uses simulated weather time series, including temperature, wind speed, and luminosity, for producing probabilistic forecasts of future peak demand. Having access to such probabilistic forecasts provides a means of assessing the uncertainty in the forecasts and can lead to improved decision making and better risk management.