Prognostic value of double product reserve

BACKGROUND: Although the prognostic power of exercise capacity has been demonstrated, the relative prognostic potential of other hemodynamic responses has not been thoroughly investigated. We aimed to assess the prognostic power of double product (DP) parameters in patients referred for standard exercise testing. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Analyses were performed on 1959 patients referred for exercise testing at the Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Medical Center from 1997 to 2006. After removal of female and heart failure patients, 1759 male veterans (mean age 57+/-12 years) remained. DP was calculated by multiplying systolic blood pressure (SBP) and heart rate (HR); variables and their products were subtracted to obtain the differences between rest and maximal exercise (reserve), and recovery. RESULTS: Multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed for 157 all-cause and 53 cardiovascular deaths during a mean follow-up of 5.4+/-2.1 years. Although most of the hemodynamic variables were individually significant in Cox survival analysis, when age, DP reserve, exercise capacity (in metabolic equivalents), and HR recovery were entered together, only age and DP reserve were chosen. Of all hemodynamic measurements considered, DP reserve was the strongest predictor of cardiovascular prognosis after adjustment for age (Wald Z-score,-5.12; P<0.0001) and when considering other potential confounders such as age, beta-blocker use, and the Duke treadmill Score (Wald Z-score,-3.84; P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: In this study population, DP reserve had greater prognostic power than metabolic equivalents, maximal HR or systolic blood pressure, or HR recovery.