The Results: How Britain Voted

For many months before it happened, the overwhelming majority of media commentators and academic specialists were united in suggesting that the General Election in May 2015 was the most unpredictable in living memory. The reason for this was the extraordinary evolution of party popularity after the 2010 election. The days have long gone when inter-election cycles followed a fairly simple and familiar pattern—the government would become unpopular and opposition parties more popular until about the middle of the term and then the governing party would gradually recover, while the others faded. Even by recent standards, however, the course of opinion between 2010 and 2015 was remarkable. Trends in General Election voting intentions over the period are shown in Figure 1.1. As usual, the new government's honeymoon with the electorate was short-lived. Despite falling behind Labour by the end of 2010, however, Conservative support remained relatively buoyant until April 2012. The significant slump in that month followed an ill-judged and poorly received Budget delivered by the Chancellor, George Osborne, which was characterised by Ed Miliband as an ‘omnishambles’. This was later named ‘word of the year’ by the Oxford English Dictionary and began to be applied to various aspects of the government's performance. The electorate appeared to agree with Miliband. After the Budget, according to Ipsos MORI, Osborne had the poorest satisfaction ratings (−30) of any Chancellor since Kenneth Clarke in 1994. The effects were felt in the local elections in May, when the Conservatives lost over 400 seats and fell to 33% of the ‘national equivalent’ vote share, well behind Labour on 39%. Trends in party support, 2010–March 2015. Note: The data shown are the mean monthly voting intentions reported in YouGov's weekly polls for the Sunday Times. From April 2012 through to March 2015 support for the Conservatives varied within very narrow limits. On these data, the party's share of voting intentions fell (just) below 30% only once and never exceeded 33.6%. The reasons underlying the party's failure to move any higher in the public's estimation—even when there were clear signs of economic recovery and the next election approached—are explored elsewhere in this book but it is worth mentioning here that ‘modernisers’ at the top of the party appeared to go out of their way to alienate their own core supporters. Heavy cuts in expenditure on defence and the police combined with significantly increased spending on overseas aid were hardly likely to rally the Tory troops. The same applies to the withdrawal of child benefit from families paying the higher rate of income tax and the legalisation of same-sex marriage. These sorts of policies were intended, no doubt, to ‘decontaminate’ the Conservative brand and broaden the party's appeal. Upsetting core supporters is risky at the best of times, however. When there is a viable alternative party for the disaffected to turn to—and no evidence of new supporters being attracted—then the strategy looks distinctly unwise. In February 2013, just three weeks after the Commons vote on same-sex marriage, the Conservatives came third behind the Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in a parliamentary by-election at Eastleigh, a seat which they initially had hopes of gaining. Nigel Farage, UKIP leader, subsequently highlighted the ‘disconnect’ between traditional Conservative supporters and their party in typically colourful terms: ‘Tory voters are historically used to a party of free enterprise and wealth creation, but all it wants to talk about is gay marriage, wind turbines and metropolitan Notting Hill claptrap’.1 It is perhaps surprising that the ‘omnishambolic’ Conservatives were not even further behind Labour in the polls for most of the Parliament. The latter spent the first few months of opposition electing a new leader and Ed Miliband defeated the favourite—his elder brother David—to take the position, largely on the basis of the votes of affiliated trade unions. The younger Miliband struggled to make a positive impact with the electorate but for a time Labour was doing reasonably well in the popularity stakes. The party had a comfortable lead in the opinion polls, took the seat of Corby from the Conservatives in a by-election (November 2012) and made sweeping gains in the 2012 and 2013 local elections. On the other hand, Labour suffered a bad defeat in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, falling from 46 to 37 seats and leaving the Scottish National Party (SNP) with an overall majority. Labour support peaked in the latter half of 2012 but then drifted gradually downwards throughout 2013 and 2014 to a point where the two major parties were neck and neck as they entered the election year. It seems likely that this trend is explained by the increasingly negative view of Miliband held by the electorate. Whereas during 2011 his personal ratings according to YouGov (% satisfied with his performance minus % dissatisfied) had averaged −22.3, this fell to −29.8 in 2012, −30.7 in 2013 and −41.8 in 2014. In the latter year Labour's performance in the local elections was very modest and Miliband's reputation was not enhanced by a much-criticised speech at the party conference in which he failed to mention the deficit in public finances or immigration—two of the biggest issues worrying the electorate. The big losers in this inter-election period, however, were the Liberal Democrats. As Figure 1.1 shows, their support plummeted as soon as they joined the Coalition—reflecting, no doubt, the disappointment of those who had voted for them as an anti-Conservative Party. Particularly damaging was the party leadership's agreement to the tripling of university tuition fees—breaking a clear campaign promise to oppose any move in that direction. From December 2010, the Liberal Democrats only occasionally exceeded 10% of voting intentions—less than half of their support in the 2010 election. In the last six months of 2014 they averaged only 7.2% and in December fell to fifth place behind both UKIP and the Green Party. The party leader, Nick Clegg, bore the brunt of the electorate's displeasure. Having risen dramatically in public estimation during the 2010 election campaign, his reputation then fell like a stone. Starting with a positive satisfaction rating of +40 in May 2010 he was in negative territory by the end of the year, averaged −42.8 during 2011 and thereafter never had an annual average score better than −50. For comparison, David Cameron's worst annual average was −19.5 in 2013. The poor showing of Clegg and his party in the opinion polls was borne out in mid-term elections. The 2011 Scottish Parliament election was a disaster with only five seats won (compared with 16 in 2007). Local election results went from bad to worse. The party's national equivalent vote fell from 16 to between 2011 and and more than of the held in In parliamentary which they used to be the party to Liberal Democrats lost their in of the in in 2012, the party to behind an of other while in and in 2014 their failed to of In the Parliament elections in May 2014 the Liberal Democrats won than of votes and lost of their to the of the Liberal the used for a when a to the was in a national in May 2011 by the Liberal Democrats were the clear losers after the 2010 General then the were the December 2010, the other parties had the Liberal Democrats in the polls and the lead as they an of Despite in the Scottish election, the behind Labour in voting intentions for until the of the in 2014. Independence was by the but there was then a in support in for the which to talk of it all but sweeping the in the General damaging Labour's In however, made The Green Party only of votes in the 2010 election it a and for most of the inter-election period in opinion polls and no in or local elections. the time of the 2014 Parliament elections. In that the won of the vote and increased their from two to three their support in the polls remained at by but during the first three months of 2015 it to at in The of in support for however, was The party won of the vote in 2010 but at appeared to make In a of in 2012, however, there were in vote were than the Liberal Democrats were place in two and in two and UKIP came The for the party to their ratings in and came in March 2013 the by-election where an place more for the party and Even better was to however. In the elections in and in May 2013, UKIP won seats and had a national equivalent vote share of of for a UKIP to more than of General Election voting intentions in year the party came out top in the Parliament election, of votes and This was the first time in more than a that a election not in the Conservatives or Labour first in of popular was a further in however. in two Conservative from the of on of UKIP and were the party at of voting intentions but then a to end at in both UKIP and the had from their by the time that the election campaign was there was no of their support as had the of parties in the The of the General Election not just from the that the two major parties were in by the first months of 2015. In there was the impact of a in Liberal support, as well as the for the and UKIP and the of the latter would the votes of the big parties in more or there is an in when an election is in the a in the few weeks of the campaign on this was than since there to In 2010, of voters that they made their about which party to support during the campaign and the between the party had a impact on public In however, the parties and it to agree on the and of In the there was only in which both David and Nick Clegg April and this was of a since it the of no than Figure the trend in voting intentions for the parties from March of the of on the basis of the polls by As be from a for the Liberal during a campaign which was by commentators as and even On these data, after the first the Conservative share of voting intentions was between and while Labour fell that just UKIP held at between and not shown in the the to vote Green hardly In campaign polls to that there would be a from Labour to the Trends in voting intentions during the Note: The data are of reported in YouGov's polls for the and Sunday Times. The of the The by the to the in of votes at the election was to of them a between the Conservatives and the Conservatives a point two Labour in a narrow In the it not turn out that The of votes and the of seats won by the major parties in 2015 and from 2010 are shown in 1.1. The electorate the and by the Conservatives a significant lead over Labour in the popular vote as a they to with an overall majority in the of the Liberal Democrats dramatically in popular and were with just were as third party the electorate by UKIP which by but won just poor for place in The Green Party vote share, but there were no to the seat In the took of the votes which of the won Scottish in 2010, was to just This was an for Labour in an election in of votes and of seats won and from 2010 Note: The who was not by the Labour or Liberal is as an of votes and of seats won and from 2010 Note: The who was not by the Labour or Liberal is as an in party of votes English and in and Labour increased support doing best in and well in The Conservatives a in the and but to The Liberal in very the while UKIP would in be as even in the party's in The election in was In the of the all three of the other major parties while the increased share by UKIP is largely explained by the that the of by the party from to in party of votes in in party of votes in in both the and of in party support would be at since General are more than national between party the by media of the Local and as well as at the all have a to of an of in the of votes This is by the the of the between the of votes in 2010 and 2015. these are for the for Labour and for the Liberal Democrats in all for UKIP and the was on the basis of their performance in 2010, the being and Despite these there in the of in direction. Conservative support in and in Despite Labour's vote share fell in English and was no where the Liberal Democrats an however, and where UKIP even when were in the their varied Liberal for from than five in two and to more than in three and and UKIP by or more in but by than two in local many and make it to it is worth for first is to in support for the various parties were and the that where of the parties the other had results and It be that both the Conservatives and Labour from the in Liberal more the latter fell in a the better the major parties It was by many before the election that an by UKIP would be to the Conservatives more than In the that better UKIP were with results for the the was when in the UKIP and Labour vote are in support for the were not significantly to Conservative performance and to the for It is however, that the the between in vote for the and the Liberal Democrats is the most negative of all in the The in Liberal support the Green Party to best General Election between in vote and Note: The for Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats only is for these parties and UKIP for these and the Green Party it is and for UKIP and are significant that for the Conservatives and Green Party. between in vote and Note: The for Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats only is for these parties and UKIP for these and the Green Party it is and for UKIP and are significant that for the Conservatives and Green Party. It reasonably be that the of party in would in party a of for which is to to the of the party in and data to this The Liberal Democrats lost most where they had more votes to where they had in first or place in Labour best where they were in with the Liberal Democrats while the Conservatives had average in vote share where the Liberal Democrats were their The Green Party most in Labour Liberal these would relatively of voters who would be to the For the same UKIP had relatively poor results in these The in held by the Liberal Democrats from the Conservatives was below and this an of voting by UKIP in overall vote in in overall vote in As the election in was from the in the of and the Scottish is explored by in a later It is to make a few the support for the parties was in the same way that it had in in in 2010 and 2015 of for the for Labour and for the Liberal Democrats in all however, the for the is only the of support in this election was to that in the the of was than is This is the votes in where it had relatively the in vote varied were six of them where it was where it was between and where it was between and and three and where it was more than when the in the vote there are only significant As both the Conservatives and Labour better where the Liberal Democrats lost more of and a trend in the of the the Green Party to have from the Liberal only 16 seats are the between the in the two vote is an The of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were to that of the but the between the latter and Labour as the parties in Scottish is by the that in their vote were As even a of the election results would the the by the the the was Labour's of all elections results and in the Scottish this time it came from the increased vote share by but the Labour to his share by and from the as the Scottish Labour of a It be however, that the received for to of Scottish as in the election the slump in the Liberal vote was well average the later by and for of this When on in of support for the parties than between would be on territory that is more familiar in that are very from election to the In this however, the of the of the the of the Liberal Democrats of an in make familiar than in party support with the of there a in Labour's the three English the party's lead over the Conservatives is relatively in and The three and very for the Conservatives with Labour not even of votes in two of of was a disaster for Labour but even no be as Labour The party in is even more in of seats In the three the Conservatives won only seats with for Labour and for the Liberal Democrats. In the and in the was for the for for the Liberal Democrats and for others the Party of votes and seats won in Note: The is as Party of votes and seats won in Note: The is as As usual, the Liberal Democrats had a relatively even of votes but on this it was at an failed to 10% of votes the in where they held In the to as a for the of votes but failed to a UKIP well in the and for and In the of this is to the of the which of recent it is worth that the Green Party had results in the of where they have a of local than In to in party support the between the of the vote by the parties in in and and a of from the 2011 The data no in of the Conservatives and It is not to that the had of the vote in where there were more and with and in more well where there were more younger those no those not a to and in more These were in Labour's between party of vote in 2015 and and Note: not significant at the are The seat is in the of the three between party of vote in 2015 and and Note: not significant at the are The seat is in the of the three The of Liberal support is a of that for the Conservatives in that the to be in the same but Despite the slump in support for the in the same are worth however. in 2010 the Liberal vote to be the more and there were in a This the these are not the Conservatives have the the in a this was not of the Liberal Democrats in 2015. they held better lost where there were more The for UKIP and the Green Party are an but that these two parties to sorts of UKIP best where there are more voters and but their vote share was to the of in a On the other hand, the party in where there were more with with no and for the the between the of support for the and these were the of those for In in the of the two major the and of their support remained as they have in the The as as the Liberal Democrats are is a more while the of the votes won by UKIP and the that the two support in sorts of In the data in however, it be on their these about the party of the to the various and polls are about the between the of and of party support in those in Conservative and Labour were with the of in the same way as in the of on the that party's the of The data are shown in In 2010, only five were significantly with vote and % with % and % with no the of the was In the was As be the of support was more by and the of and In the relatively well where there were more and of In 2010, the five significant for of the in in the same five explained Despite of Scottish the is no a party a in this election at it over were the of Labour in between share of vote in 2015 and Note: are significant at the between share of vote in 2015 and Note: are significant at the in is as the of the electorate which a it those who voted but were for reason or and that is followed it a it is worth that before this election the of was than the being by the of on of all at an was to and to of those who were to this more never to likely to have in any have that the new would lead to higher reported On the of the election, there was the in the media about the of In the next for which was after only a few results had it was reported that was to be at for two It was reported that a had out on that would this to be on the of since the overall was Despite the that the was to be very and that UKIP was to this was an of just on the for On the positive 2015 was the third General Election in that on the other hand, it than at any election between and as with support for the there of a in with to The three had relatively poor than the for used to be a but it is a than an of more than since 2010, the in out as The in 2014 the Scottish electorate to a and this over the period, as polls began to the of a major in the of the and a in Labour's to in and as with as a even in 2015 failed to the in elections between and 2015 2015 As usual, the of varied in 2015. the the with a of the other Scottish the top three The was in which was the of a very between the Liberal and the followed by and As with the of support for the major in the most and familiar between the of in 2015 and the of as well as their party's in In it is for the the overall in to be relatively and relatively and the two are very in The are and the latter and middle and relatively As it is worth that this not the to which in the various out to it that the more with in and there are in a the higher was between in 2015 and are significant at the the between in 2015 and are significant at the the is in however. The of the in a in the election with for many campaign more seats to those that are very or for these in higher In there were that the parties were more than on their even on voters within these On this however, not in better is not is no reason for this It be that voters in seats with the of and on during the campaign that they from the election In any this is a that further is in for the poor performance of the Liberal Democrats in the election. This was the in a of from the to a with the Conservatives and the of for the party leader, Nick the Conservatives defeated Labour is more In the of the and media commentators a of Labour's move to the over the five the of the English electorate and the of the in to be to the out of of the Election there are for to a the Conservative was a of the that by academic in recent This that are more about on which there is agreement on the to be about or the that parties take on more make about which party is likely to be more on the as a way of the of the they the of the party and that which party they to the three issues most by the electorate in 2015 were the by of and the National These other issues and be as issues wants a and a while the majority of on As to the party best to these Labour the Conservatives by on the National the Conservatives were by on the and on on which a significant of the Conservatives to have had the on the issues in the election. When it to of the party however, there is no for David Ed Miliband. As Figure shows, the latter never once the from the time he Labour leader until the of the the campaign YouGov the only a few there was in Miliband's he well behind On the of Ipsos reported that was to be the most by of with this of Miliband. The last time that a General Election was not won by the party of the leader as was in when Conservatives defeated Labour In that however, was by to received reasonably personal for Labour and the latter not only in the electorate's estimation of who would be the best but the that he was doing a were than those who his performance and the media a more to the data by the polls on party on issues and than being by the they have a more in the that the election would be to a for 2010–March 2015. YouGov polls for The Sunday is the of the to be that is a to be