Migration and Sorting in the American Electorate: Evidence From the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study

Migration is a significant factor in the composition of U.S. electoral constituencies, including U.S. House districts. Does migration contribute to geographic homogeneity, and does the result contribute to political polarization in a significant way? This article considers this question using the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey. To determine individual-level migration patterns, residence information from individual survey respondents is matched to the U.S. Postal Service’s change of address database. This technique provides precise information about respondents’ migration history that follows the preferences expressed in each individual’s survey response. I find support for the claim that migrants are more likely to move into a congressional district that matches their ideological preferences even after controlling for the partisanship in the district of origin. This result emerges for both major parties in two sets of model specifications: multinomial logit models restricted to migrants and a selection model that includes all respondents.