Identifying Determinants of Retention Decisions1

Variables from five domains—demography, social background, service history, satisfaction, and performance—were used in a discriminant analysis approach to distinguishing three groups of naval personnel: Those eligible to reenlist who do, those eligible who do not, and those not eligible. Discriminant weights were derived from a sample of 642 first‐term enlisted men and cross‐validated on a sample of 628. The results indicated that both pre‐service characteristics (demography and social background) and in‐service experiences (service history, satisfaction, and performance) contributed importantly to prediction of attrition/retention. Potential usefulness of this method, including implications for better understanding and control of manpower turnover were discussed.